Kim Jong-Ils Death starts New Chinese Foreign Policy Era

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2011-12-19 (China Military News cited from china-briefing.comand by Chris Devonshire-Ellis) -- The death of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il from a heart attack may prove to be a turning point in Chinas foreign policy.

Kim, who was 69 years old, had been in ill-health for some time and apparently suffered the fatal heart attack while on a train in North Korea on Saturday. While mainstream media goes into overdrive with talk of a Korean Peninsula crisis, the reality is that this situation has long been catered for in carefully thought-out plans by the North Koreans themselves, in addition to concerned neighboring countries South Korea, Japan, China and Russia. The United States too, an important player in shaping the destiny of Korea, will also have had its contingency plan well worked out, almost certainly including dialogue with each of the affected nations. The six-party talks on nuclear disarmament, with or without North Korean involvement, will have provided plenty of opportunity for discussion.

While the initial reaction to Kims death may indicate a regime on the brink of change and potential for unrest, the prospect for a Korean Peninsula crisis is slim. The North Koreans have reacted swiftly to announce the appointment of Kim Jong-Ils third son, Kim Jung-Un, as Great Leader signifying that, in North Korea at least, the handover of power has gone smoothly. Kim senior introduced his son as heir apparent to leaders of both China and Russia, the two countries upon which so much depends, and involved his son in diplomatic missions to these countries earlier this year.

The death of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il may prove to be a turning point in Chinas foreign policy

Immediate concern is on the strength of North Koreas military, which holds the key to the future of the nation and has the potential to destabilize Northeast Asia. With Seoul and Tokyo within missile striking range and the potential for nuclear threat, the status of the military personnel with fingers actually on buttons remain, to the West at least, hard to determine.

However, I very much doubt that this is the case for China, which is aware of exactly who is in control of North Koreas weapon systems and able to deploy weapons. I suspect the strong hand of Beijing is very much behind the scenes, providing a very firm, resolute and strong push for no conflict in the region. We can, in Northeast Asia, rest easy and trust the Chinese right now, and frankly, we need to. Kim Jong-Ils passing is, in fact, one of the few signs that having a militarily strong China is not always a bad thing.

China has likely quickly deployed troops to the North Korean border, and I suspect that Russia has done the same. The more nervous nations of South Korea and Japan will be ramping up their military coverage as well, but this is purely to demonstrate capability. China has the additional worry of potential civil unrest in the event that millions of North Koreans decide to attempt to migrate to its wealthier neighbor.

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